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Which of the 2nd-round losing teams should be most worried in 2025-26?


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Michael Amatulli
May 26, 2025  (6:42 PM)
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Analyst says Capitals are likely to regress in the 2025-26 season
Photo credit: NHL

Several NHL analysts were asked which team to exit the 2nd-round of NHL playoffs is least likely to have a successful 2025-26 season.

Matt Larkin believes it's the Washington Capitals. He claims the Caps had eight or nine players who had career years in 2024-25.
But can Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome and Logan Thompson be depended upon to repeat their excellent seasons?
"I do think the Caps are going to be ok long-term, as they have an impressive prospect crop," Larkin said, "led by Ryan Leonard, Cole Hutson and Andrew Cristall. But I see them taking a step backward from their 111-point season, probably by 10-15 points, in 2025-26."

Scott Maxwell, on the other hand, thinks the Leafs are most likely to regress. While Caps overperformed, they still played like a playoff team. Leafs, not so much. They were one of five teams to finish regular season with a sub-50% 5v5 expected goal share.
Scott says the Leafs worsened in the playoffs with a 43.75 share. They got by with elite goaltending and opportunistic bounces, have no depth and will regress, especially if Mitch Marner does not resign with Toronto.
Analyst Paul Pidutti thinks there are concerns with each of the 2nd-round playoff losers, but thinks it's Winnipeg to regress.
"I hope I'm wrong, as Winnipeg's resurgence - both in the standings and at the box office - was a fell-good story all year. But it will take another Herculean effort and some good fortune to repeat a thrilling 2024-2025.

Pidutti's hopes were high on Jets because of Connor Hellebuyck (32), Scheifele ( 32), John Morrissey (30), and Kyle Connor (28), who all played well beyond the kind of performance their ages would suggest.

Even if Niko Ehlers returns to the line-up, Pidutti continues, and reinforcements are added, the group just made it out of the 1st-round in the dying seconds of the 3rd period and were inconsistent in their playoff run.

Anthony Di Marco's pick to regress is also the Jets, unless Hellebuyck can repeat his Vezina/Hart type season. Without an elite goalie, they are just above-average.
POLL
MAI 26   |   39 ANSWERS
Which of the 2nd-round losing teams should be most worried in 2025-26?

Which team do you believe will regress next season?

Washington Capitals923.1 %
Toronto Maple Leafs1128.2 %
Winnipeg Jets923.1 %
Vegas Golden Knights1025.6 %
List of polls

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