Stanley Cup Odds: Analytics doubt Washington Capitals again despite top seed and First-Round win

MoneyPuck published its updated predictions for the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs and were giving the Capitals just a 44.8% chance of beating the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 2.

Worse yet, the Washington Capitals has the lowest odds of making the Stanley Cup Final with 17.5% and winning it all with 7.5% among the remaining teams in the NHL.

The Hurricanes, who are long beloved by analytics models, are slight favourites at 55.2%, with the Florida Panthers holding the best odds in the East to reach the Final with 29.2%, and the Vegas Golden Knights lead the West at 28.2%.

MoneyPuck's outlook is relatively generous and HockeyViz gives the Caps a 42% chance of advancing, The Athletic just 33%, and Evolving Hockey a mere 24%.

For years, the Capitals have outperformed their expected metrics particularly in goal-scoring by defying the advanced stats community's predictions.

In contrast, Carolina's game is built on high-volume shot generation and relentless possession, even if their actual finishing rate remains not very good.

Eric Tulsky is a former analytics blogger and the Carolina Hurricanes have become a case study in process over results and yet there's a good news.

If history is any indication then betting against the Capitals' finishing talent and especially when names like Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome and Logan Thompson are heating up is a risky game.

The numbers may not believe in the Caps, but the scoreboard often tells a different story.